Hamas has taken a risk with its largest ever military blow to Israel

 

 Hamas attack This weekend's on Israel bore an uncanny resemblance to the 1973 Yom Kippur war, which occurred exactly 50 years ago this week. In both cases, careful Arab military planning caught an unprepared Israeli government and military intelligence off guard. Now, as then, a devastating assault was launched on an unsuspecting Jewish holiday morning (Shemini Atzeret, following the festival of Sukkot).

The obvious difference is that the Yom Kippur war was launched by two militaries that were adequately armed and trained. Egypt and Syria, backed by the Soviet Union, attempted to reclaim territories occupied by Israel in Sinai and the Golan Heights in 1967. It was conventional warfare, and thousands of soldiers died as a result. Hamas, on the other hand, is a guerrilla movement that has ruled Gaza since 2007, a strip of land between the Mediterranean Sea and Israel where 2 million people are imprisoned in a "open air prison." As the Israeli military appeared helpless, Hamas militants crossed the border and temporarily took over military installations, towns, and villages.

Such an attack by Palestinian forces is unprecedented. But, unlike in 1973, this is not an attempt to occupy and hold territory. It is essentially a large-scale deadly raid designed to kill, destroy, and return prisoners and hostages to Gaza. It is similar to the Palestinian Liberation Organization's attacks in the 1970s, but on a much larger scale. According to current figures, over 600 Israelis have been killed, with the vast majority of them being civilians. Many families were murdered in their homes. Thousands have been injured. This was by far the deadliest day in Israeli history, surpassing the worst moments of the 2000s suicide bombings or the 1948 war. Around 100 Israeli hostages are believed to be in Gaza right now.

What are the goals of Hamas? There was a clear Egyptian calculus in 1973. Egypt's previous offers for a negotiated withdrawal from Sinai had been rejected by Israel, and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat believed that a limited military victory would shift the balance of power and bring Israel to the negotiating table. Egypt's transition from the Soviet sphere of influence to US patronage was critical in this regard. Sadat took a risk, but the geopolitical environment supported him.

It appears that Hamas is also attempting to force Israel into negotiations. In 2018, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar wrote to Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in Hebrew, urging him to take a "calculated risk" by agreeing to a long-term truce. While Netanyahu agreed to some relief from Gaza's siege, he refused to accept Hamas's long-term demands, which included a large-scale prisoner swap, lifting the siege by opening the international border crossing, and establishing a port and airport in Gaza. After 16 years of siege and several disastrous rounds of war that have killed thousands of Gaza residents, Hamas may be hoping to break the deadlock. But the international climate is already hostile to Hamas, and an attack with so many civilian casualties will only make matters worse.

A negotiated settlement appears unthinkable with Israel's hard-right government. Yesterday, Netanyahu urged Palestinians in Gaza to "leave" - to where is unclear - and threatened Hamas with indiscriminate bombing. Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since then. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for "cruel" retaliation in a cabinet meeting, implying that the bombings could kill dozens of Israeli hostages in Gaza. The extreme right in Israel sees this as an opportunity to escalate tensions between Israel and the West Bank, the other Palestinian territory between the Jordan River's west bank and Israel's eastern border, as members of the Knesset openly discuss large-scale expulsion of Palestinians as a desired outcome.

There are loud voices within Israel - not just on the extreme right - calling for the Israeli Defense Forces to re-occupy Gaza and depose Hamas. Given Israel's losses, such a campaign is not unthinkable. However, it would be costly in terms of human lives and would result in direct Israeli military control of the Gaza Strip, which Israel abandoned nearly 30 years ago. On the other hand, it is almost certain that public pressure in Israel will soon mount to secure the hostages' release. This would almost certainly necessitate a deal with Hamas. However, such a political solution would almost certainly involve the release of thousands of prisoners as well as additional concessions in Jerusalem and the West Bank.The chances of such a deal appear dim.

Some commentators believe the attack was orchestrated by Iran in order to derail Saudi "normalization" with Israel. Such explanations are unpersuasive. The Gulf states' willingness to normalize relations with Israel may have galvanized Hamas's willingness to act. However, a major escalation in Palestine/Israel was already underway, with a dramatic increase in Palestinian casualties in the West Bank, ethnic cleansing of several small communities, intensified settlers' attacks, and obvious changes to the status quo at Jerusalem's al-Aqsa mosque/Temple Mount. As a result, many people believed that a popular uprising - another intifada - was only a matter of time.

It's possible that Hamas decided that an escalation was imminent and that it preferred to maintain control of the situation rather than respond to a popular uprising. This is the most significant military blow delivered by the Palestinians to Israel. As the Palestinian National Authority, which controls the West Bank, and its 87-year-old leader, Mahmoud Abbas, fade into obscurity, Hamas seeks to establish itself as the true Palestinian leadership for the next stage, even if it means risking a confrontation whose outcome no one knows.